PWR-HYBRID-3/claude_memory/2026-04-28-DICE-2026-conference-intel.md
Dane Sabo c5133401e0 Session work scratch: scram X_exit refactor, hot-standby SOS, fat scram tubes, model cheatsheet, journal entry
Multi-session work bundle on a draft branch.  Splits into a clean
sequence of commits later; pushed here so it isn't lost on a reboot.

Reach work
- code/scripts/reach/reach_scram_pj.jl: shutdown_margin halfspace
  X_exit (replaces "n <= 1e-4 AND T_f bound" framing); per-step
  envelope extraction added.
- code/scripts/reach/reach_scram_pj_fat.jl: per-step envelope
  extraction added; shutdown_margin discharge logic mirrored from the
  tight scram script.  3 probes (10/30/60s) all discharge from the
  fat union polytope.
- code/scripts/reach/reach_scram_full_fat.jl (NEW): full nonlinear
  PKE scram reach with fat entry.  Hits the stiffness wall at
  ~1.5 s plant time as expected; saves NaN-tolerant per-step
  envelopes.  Demonstrates concretely why PJ is the right tool for
  the longer-horizon proof.
- code/scripts/reach/reach_heatup_pj.jl: T_REF_START_C constant
  (entry-conditioned ramp) replaces T_STANDBY-init that was making
  the FL controller command cooling at t=0.  Per-step extraction
  already in place.
- code/configs/heatup/tight.toml: bumped maxsteps; probe horizon
  parameterized.

Hot-standby SOS barrier
- code/scripts/barrier/barrier_sos_2d_shutdown.jl (NEW): mirrors the
  operation SOS machinery on the hot-standby thermal projection.
  Includes the eps-slack pattern (so feasibility doesn't silently
  collapse to B == 0).
- code/scripts/barrier/barrier_sos_2d.jl: refactored to use the same
  helper.
- code/src/sos_barrier.jl (NEW): solve_sos_barrier_2d helper module
  factoring out the SOS construction; eps-slack with eps_cap=1.0 to
  avoid unbounded primal.

Library
- code/src/pke_states.jl (NEW): single source of truth for canonical
  initial-condition vectors per DRC mode (op, shutdown, heatup) keyed
  off plant + predicates.
- code/scripts/sim/{main_mode_sweep,validate_pj}.jl, code/CLAUDE.md:
  migrated to pke_states.

Predicates + invariants
- reachability/predicates.json: new shutdown_margin predicate (1%
  dk/k tech-spec floor, expressed as alpha_f*T_f + alpha_c*T_c
  halfspace).  Used as scram X_exit.

Plot script
- code/scripts/plot/plot_reach_tubes.jl: plot_tubes_scram_pj() with
  variant=:fat|:tight knob; plot_tubes_scram_full() for full-PKE
  3-panel (T_c, T_f, rho); plot_tubes_heatup_pj() reads results/
  not reachability/.

Journal + memory
- journal/entries/2026-04-27-shutdown-sos-and-scram-X_exit.tex (NEW):
  long-form entry on the SOS hot-standby barrier and the scram X_exit
  refactor.
- journal/journal.tex: input chain updated.
- claude_memory/ — three new session notes:
  * 2026-04-27-scram-X_exit-shutdown-margin.md
  * 2026-04-28-DICE-2026-conference-intel.md (people, sessions,
    strategic notes for the May 12 talk)
  * 2026-04-28-path1-sos-pj-sketch.md (sketch of nonlinear-SOS via
    polynomial multiply-through; saved for an overnight session)

Docs
- docs/model_cheatsheet.md (NEW): one-page reference of state vector,
  dynamics, constants, modes, predicates, sanity numbers — the talk
  prep cheatsheet Dane asked for.
- docs/figures/reach_*_tubes.png: regenerated with the new mat data.
- presentations/prelim-presentation/outline.md: revised arc per the
  April-28 review pass (cuts: Lyapunov-fails standalone slide,
  operation-tube standalone slide, SOS standalone; adds: scopes-of-
  control framing, scram on the headline result slide).
- app/predicate_explorer.jl: minor.

Hacker-Split: end-of-session scratch bundle
2026-05-02 23:02:50 -04:00

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# 2026-04-28 — DICE 2026 conference intel (Salt Lake City, May 12-13)
Networking + strategy notes for the 2026 Digital Engineering Conference,
hosted by INL + University of Utah + Utah Office of Energy Development at
S.J. Quinney College of Law, U Utah.
## Dane's slot
**Tuesday May 12, 3:30 PM — Breakout Session 10** (afternoon, 2:304:30).
Talk title: *"Leveraging Formal Methods to Build High Assurance Hybrid
Autonomous Control Systems for Nuclear Power"*. 4th of 6 talks in BS10.
20-minute slot.
BS10 theme is **risk + assurance**, not tools. Defense-in-depth framing
(slide 11) lands well here.
## BS10 walkthrough (Dane's session)
| Time | Speaker | Talk | What to know |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2:30 | **Olivia Beck** | Metadata Standards for Nuclear Deterrence Test Data | Data-layer / nonproliferation; orthogonal to Dane's work. |
| 2:50 | **Robert Hayes** | DE of Agility and Risk in Complex SoS | NCSU Associate Professor of Nuclear Engineering. Background is radiation physics, health physics, nonproliferation, dosimetry — *not* his published wheelhouse for SoS/digital engineering. The DICE talk represents a stretch from his usual research; either he's broadening or the topic is a cover for radiation-context work. **Likely Q&A from him: "how does this scale to system-of-systems?"** Have ready: per-mode reach-avoid composition; you verify locally and inherit hybrid correctness. *Possible name collision* — confirm by face on arrival; multiple Robert Hayes in the field. |
| 3:10 | **Linyu Lin** | Predictive Maintenance Visualization | INL researcher, ML-flavored predictive-maintenance work. Orthogonal but worth a hello — INL collaborator pool. |
| **3:30** | **Dane** | Formal Methods talk | — |
| 3:50 | **David Borden** | Cryogenic DT for Neutrino Physics | Specialized; orthogonal. |
| 4:10 | **Nicole Davis** | "Every Interface is a Risk" | Cyber-flavored closer. Couldn't disambiguate online (very common name). Title strongly suggests OT-cyber posture; she'll be in the same defense-in-depth headspace as Dane's slide 11. **Likely friendly Q&A; mention defense-in-depth out loud and she'll bite.** |
## Top 3 to seek out at the Tuesday reception (4:456:30)
### 1. Yue Chen — NREL (likely; common name, see caveat)
**Working hypothesis:** Yue Chen at the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory (Denver Metro), Ph.D. University of Florida 20122016. Coursework
in optimization/optimal control, stochastic control, control of complex
networks. Published on combining model-based + model-free methods for
stochastic control of DERs. NREL has an active **Autonomous Energy
Systems** thrust with Lyapunov-stability + SOS work for grid-forming
converters — the talk title (*"Lyapunov-Based Iterative Learning of
Regions of Attraction for Autonomous Systems"*) fits this lineage.
**Caveat:** "Yue Chen" is extremely common in the field; couldn't 100%
confirm this is the right Yue Chen. **Verify by face/badge on arrival.**
LinkedIn: `linkedin.com/in/yuechen10/` for the NREL one.
**Why seek him out:** Methodological neighbor. ROA learning is the
ML-flavored cousin of Dane's SOS-barrier path. **Conversation opener:**
*"I'm doing SOS polynomial barriers on a similar problem — what's the
trade-off in your experience between certified-but-rigid (SOS) and
learned-but-soft (iterative ROA)?"* Lets him show his work, opens
collab door.
**If he's at the methodology end (a real stability theorist):** a possible
collaborator on path 1 (PJ-SOS). Worth a follow-up email after the
conference.
### 2. Diego Mandelli — Idaho National Laboratory
**Confirmed.** R&D Engineer at INL, Ph.D., works in **Risk Assessment
and Management Services**. Specializes in dynamic PRA, simulation-based
risk modeling, AI/data-mining for nuclear safety, knowledge graphs for
nuclear plant systems. Recent (2024) work on "Technical Language Processing
of Nuclear Power Plants Equipment Reliability Data" + the MBSE-knowledge-graph
approach on his DICE talk.
**Why seek him out:** **Licensing/regulatory pathway ally.** Mandelli's
work is the data + reliability + reasoning layer that complements Dane's
formal verification — different abstraction levels of the same
high-assurance problem. He's INL, well-networked, knows the NRC interface.
**Conversation opener:** *"Your KG approach gives a structured reasoning
layer over reliability data; my work gives bounded-time safety proofs
over the continuous plant. They're complementary — both feed the
licensing argument from different sides. How are you seeing the NRC
respond to formal-methods-based assurance arguments?"*
His DICE talk: BS3 Tuesday morning at 10:25 — *"From Data to Knowledge:
An MBSE- and Knowledge Graph-Centered AI Framework for Nuclear Reliability
and Licensing."*
### 3. Sean McBride — Idaho State University
**Confirmed.** Director of the **Informatics Research Institute** at
Idaho State University's College of Technology. Founded the ICS
Cybersecurity Associates Degree program at ISU. Background: ex-FireEye
(built their ICS security business strategy), pioneered DHS ICS-CERT
threat/vulnerability intelligence, co-founded Critical Intelligence (ICS
threat intel firm). **One of the people who actually built ICS-CERT.**
Education-focused now; cares about workforce + students who understand
both PLCs and physical safeguards.
**Why seek him out:** Closest direct overlap with Dane's formal-methods-
plus-cyber pitch. McBride represents the OT-cyber audience Dane is trying
to reach. He's also at INL's neighbor institution — geographic and
network proximity to Dane's likely collaborators.
His DICE talk: BS6 Tuesday afternoon at 2:30 — *"A Hierarchical Model for
PLC Code Quality, Safety and Cybersecurity."* Conflicts with Dane's
slot (BS10), so reception is the moment.
**Conversation opener:** *"Your PLC code quality work and my hybrid
controller verification work both hit the same target — high-assurance
control logic — from different layers. I'd love to compare notes on how
the OT-cyber community is receiving formal-methods arguments."*
## Tuesday morning breakout — strategic room choice
All five rooms (BS1BS5) run in parallel 9:4511:45. Pick one and stay.
Two viable plays:
**Option A — BS1 (methodology overlap):**
- 10:05 — **Yue Chen**, "Lyapunov-Based Iterative Learning of ROA for Autonomous Systems"
- 10:45 — Kevin O'Rear (Everstar/Gordian), "DOE→NRC Regulatory Crosswalk via GenAI"
- 11:05 — Sonali Roy, "AutoDONE: Agentic Framework for NPP Design"
**Option B — BS3 (licensing pathway):**
- 9:45 — Jieun Lee, "Remote Ops AGN-201 Reactor DT"
- 10:25 — **Diego Mandelli**, "MBSE + KG AI for Nuclear Reliability and Licensing"
- 11:05 — **Nicholas Luciano** (ORNL), "Digital Twins to Enable Licensing of Nuclear Innovations"
**Recommendation: Option A.** Yue Chen is the single most valuable
methodology contact. The licensing-pathway people (Mandelli, Luciano) will
be at the reception and are findable socially.
## Keynote priorities (12 keynotes; only these 4 matter for Dane)
### Liz Muller — CEO/Co-founder, Deep Fission
**Tuesday 8:45 morning keynote.** Co-founded Deep Fission in 2023 with her
father Richard Muller (UC Berkeley physicist). Deep Fission deploys
**off-the-shelf small modular pressurized water reactors a mile underground
in boreholes** — combining standard PWR tech, deep-borehole drilling
(oil & gas), and geothermal heat transfer. Reactor named "Gravity."
Selected for DOE's Reactor Pilot Program; first reactor going in at
Parsons, Kansas. Recently raised $80M.
Previously co-founded and led Deep Isolation (nuclear waste disposal
via deep boreholes — same tech family) and Berkeley Earth (climate-data
nonprofit).
**Why she matters for Dane:** PWRs in unconventional siting → unconventional
licensing arguments → formal methods becomes more relevant, not less,
when the regulator can't lean on operational track record. Listen for
how she frames the regulatory ask. If she emphasizes "we use standard
PWR tech to minimize licensing risk," that's the opening for
formal-methods assurance arguments.
### Yasir Arafat — CTO/Co-founder, Aalo Atomics
**Wednesday 9:15 opening keynote.** Founded Westinghouse's eVinci
microreactor program. Led DOE's **MARVEL project at INL** — first DOE
reactor authorization in 30 months (very fast). Joined Aalo Atomics from
INL. Aalo is Austin-based, building the **Aalo-1**: a 10 MWe sodium-cooled
microreactor inspired by MARVEL, optimized for factory mass-manufacture.
Partnered with data-center operators. Raised $100M (TechCrunch, Aug 2025).
**Why he matters for Dane:** Formerly at INL (Dane's NRC fellowship
network), did MARVEL (the real "MARVEL → industry" pipeline). Sodium-
cooled fast reactor licensing is different from PWR licensing but
equally hard — autonomous control + formal verification is more, not
less, valuable. Arafat is the kind of technical founder who'd get
formal methods immediately.
### Emy Lesofski — Director, Utah Office of Energy Development
Appointed by Gov. Spencer Cox as energy advisor and OED Director in
late 2023/2024. Previously: U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations
(Subcommittee on the Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies) —
**deep federal appropriations background**. Oversees policy, programs,
and the Utah San Rafael Energy Lab. UOED has signed an MOU with
TerraPower exploring siting of an advanced reactor in Utah.
**Why she matters for Dane:** State-level energy authority + federal
appropriations background = exactly the right node if Dane wants to
explore state-funded research, advanced-reactor siting work, or the
San Rafael Energy Lab's research portfolio. UOED is **Diamond sponsor**
of DICE — she'll be visible and accessible.
### Bryan Lopez — Senior Director, Microsoft Health & Scientific Missions
Federal Strategic Science / Scientific Missions Senior Director, Health
at Microsoft (Redmond). Previously: DOE Strategic Account Director at
Microsoft. Earlier: Sandia National Labs, Nuvotech, Air Force Research
Laboratory. UNM undergrad, U Arizona M.S. (Management Information Systems).
**He's been the Microsoft↔DOE bridge for years.**
**Why he matters for Dane:** Microsoft is heavy at this conference
(3 keynote slots — Lopez, Misty Jordan, Nelli Babayan). They have
discretionary research-engagement budget for federal scientific
computing. Dane's NRC fellowship + formal methods work is exactly the
profile Microsoft Federal looks at. Lopez is the contact.
## Other potentially-useful people across the program
- **Nicholas Luciano** (ORNL, BS3 11:05) — R&D in Advanced Engineering
Technologies, Nuclear Nonproliferation Division. PhD in nuclear
engineering from U Tennessee. Did neutron spectra at SNS, fast-reactor
Pu disposition, VVER analysis. Now: digital twins for nuclear
licensing — adjacent to Dane.
- **Max Taylor** (BS2 11:05) — "MBSE to Intrusion Detection Systems."
Same defense-in-depth philosophy as Dane.
- **Prashant Kondle** (BS8 3:50) — "Clearing the Path for AI-Assisted
Systems in Regulated Industries." XAI for regulatory acceptance — adjacent
to formal methods as a regulatory pathway.
## Hard-question prep (what Dane should expect)
| Person / archetype | Likely question | Prepped answer |
|---|---|---|
| **Yue Chen** (or any Lyapunov-ROA person) | "Why SOS over learned ROA? Soundness for adaptivity is a real trade." | Yes, the trade-off is real. Soundness is non-negotiable for NRC. We lose flexibility in exchange for proofs that compose across modes. Complementary, not competitive. |
| **Robert Hayes** (or any SoS person) | "How does this scale to system-of-systems?" | Per-mode composition. Verify each mode locally; hybrid correctness inherited by composition. Doesn't require monolithic verification. |
| **Diego Mandelli / SysML-MBSE crowd** | "Why FRET over SysML/MBSE?" | FRET produces machine-checkable LTL; SysML produces human-readable diagrams. Different roles — FRET is downstream of SysML, not a replacement. |
| **Generative-AI / agentic crowd** (Vaibhav Yadav, Sonali Roy) | "Why not have an LLM do this?" | ML in the safety-critical loop is exactly what we're avoiding. Formal methods give the bounds ML lacks. We're complementary to ML safety analysis, not competitive. **Don't be defensive — the assurance argument is solid.** |
| **OT-cyber audience** (Sean McBride, Nicole Davis) | "What's your threat model?" | Slide 11 close: formal methods constrain physical-plant behavior even given comms-layer compromise. An assurance axis comms-security alone can't reach. |
| **Liz Muller / Yasir Arafat archetype** | "How does this help our licensing case?" | Bounded-time safety proofs over the continuous plant give you a quantitative argument for the NRC, not a qualitative one. Verified discrete controller + sound nonlinear reach = "we have proven this can't do the bad thing in this regime." |
## Strategic positioning notes
- **Dane is a methodological outlier.** This conference is heavy on
AI/ML/digital-twin/agentic. His formal-methods pitch will stand out —
opportunity (memorable) and risk (audience may not be tooled to
evaluate it). **Don't apologize.** Lean into the assurance angle;
the cyber-leaning subset (BS6, BS7, BS10 second half) gets it
instantly.
- **The regulatory-pathway crowd is the natural ally.** Mandelli,
Luciano, O'Rear, Kondle. All asking variants of "how do we get
advanced nuclear past the NRC?" Dane has a piece of that puzzle.
Find them at the reception.
- **The Microsoft-Federal triad** (Jordan, Babayan, Lopez) probably
has discretionary budget for formal-methods-adjacent federal work.
Worth a hello at minimum.
- **Reception is the highest-leverage window** (Tuesday 4:456:30,
catered). Wednesday is mostly fireside chats and remarks — less
chance to corner the people Dane wants to meet.
## Things to verify on arrival
- **Yue Chen identity** — confirm this is the NREL one (not a different
Yue Chen from a different institution). Look at his badge/intro.
- **Robert Hayes** — confirm whether this is the NCSU radiation-physics
professor (research mismatch with talk topic) or a different Robert
Hayes. The DICE talk seems out of his published wheelhouse.
- **Nicole Davis** — couldn't find online; she's almost certainly
identifiable from her abstract / intro at the start of her talk
in BS10. Decide on the spot whether to ping her after.
## Dane's preferred breakout-session strategy (TL;DR)
1. Tuesday morning 9:4511:45 → **BS1** (Yue Chen).
2. Tuesday afternoon 2:304:30 → **BS10** (his own session).
3. Tuesday reception 4:456:30 → **find Mandelli + McBride + (Luciano if
spotted)**, in that order.
4. Wednesday morning → keynotes (Arafat); fireside chat is networking-only,
doesn't really need close attention.
5. Anytime he sees Lesofski (Diamond sponsor — she'll be visible) or
Lopez — say hi, hand business card.
## Sources
- Diego Mandelli: [INL Researcher Profile](https://bios.inl.gov/Lists/Researcher/DisplayOverrideForm.aspx?ID=538), [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=78V6lbsAAAAJ&hl=en)
- Sean McBride: [ISU Industrial Cybersecurity](https://www.isu.edu/industrialcybersecurity/meet-your-instructors/), [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/sean-mcbride-9705298/)
- Nicholas Luciano: [ORNL Staff Profile](https://www.ornl.gov/staff-profile/nicholas-p-luciano)
- Robert Hayes: [NC State Nuclear Engineering](https://ne.ncsu.edu/people/rbhayes/), [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3Jf-ed8AAAAJ&hl=en)
- Liz Muller: [Deep Fission Leadership](https://www.deepfission.com/about-us/executive-leadership), [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/elizabethmuller/)
- Yasir Arafat: [Aalo Atomics post](https://www.aalo.com/post/yasir-arafat-of-inls-marvel-to-join-aalo-atomics-as-cto), [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/yasiraalo/)
- Emy Lesofski: [Cox appointment release](https://governor.utah.gov/press/gov-spencer-cox-appoints-emy-faulkner-lesofski-as-energy-advisor-and-director-of-the-office-of-energy-development/), [LegiStorm bio](https://www.legistorm.com/person/bio/32726/Emelyn_Faulkner_Lesofski.html)
- Bryan Lopez: [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bryanlopez/), [ZoomInfo profile](https://www.zoominfo.com/p/Bryan-Lopez/16126421360)
- Yue Chen (NREL hypothesis): [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/yuechen10/), [NREL Autonomous Energy Systems](https://www.nrel.gov/grid/algorithms)
- DICE 2026 conference: [INL DICE event page](https://dice.inl.gov/event/digital-engineering-conference-2026/)