PWR-HYBRID-3/claude_memory/2026-04-28-DICE-2026-conference-intel.md
Dane Sabo c5133401e0 Session work scratch: scram X_exit refactor, hot-standby SOS, fat scram tubes, model cheatsheet, journal entry
Multi-session work bundle on a draft branch.  Splits into a clean
sequence of commits later; pushed here so it isn't lost on a reboot.

Reach work
- code/scripts/reach/reach_scram_pj.jl: shutdown_margin halfspace
  X_exit (replaces "n <= 1e-4 AND T_f bound" framing); per-step
  envelope extraction added.
- code/scripts/reach/reach_scram_pj_fat.jl: per-step envelope
  extraction added; shutdown_margin discharge logic mirrored from the
  tight scram script.  3 probes (10/30/60s) all discharge from the
  fat union polytope.
- code/scripts/reach/reach_scram_full_fat.jl (NEW): full nonlinear
  PKE scram reach with fat entry.  Hits the stiffness wall at
  ~1.5 s plant time as expected; saves NaN-tolerant per-step
  envelopes.  Demonstrates concretely why PJ is the right tool for
  the longer-horizon proof.
- code/scripts/reach/reach_heatup_pj.jl: T_REF_START_C constant
  (entry-conditioned ramp) replaces T_STANDBY-init that was making
  the FL controller command cooling at t=0.  Per-step extraction
  already in place.
- code/configs/heatup/tight.toml: bumped maxsteps; probe horizon
  parameterized.

Hot-standby SOS barrier
- code/scripts/barrier/barrier_sos_2d_shutdown.jl (NEW): mirrors the
  operation SOS machinery on the hot-standby thermal projection.
  Includes the eps-slack pattern (so feasibility doesn't silently
  collapse to B == 0).
- code/scripts/barrier/barrier_sos_2d.jl: refactored to use the same
  helper.
- code/src/sos_barrier.jl (NEW): solve_sos_barrier_2d helper module
  factoring out the SOS construction; eps-slack with eps_cap=1.0 to
  avoid unbounded primal.

Library
- code/src/pke_states.jl (NEW): single source of truth for canonical
  initial-condition vectors per DRC mode (op, shutdown, heatup) keyed
  off plant + predicates.
- code/scripts/sim/{main_mode_sweep,validate_pj}.jl, code/CLAUDE.md:
  migrated to pke_states.

Predicates + invariants
- reachability/predicates.json: new shutdown_margin predicate (1%
  dk/k tech-spec floor, expressed as alpha_f*T_f + alpha_c*T_c
  halfspace).  Used as scram X_exit.

Plot script
- code/scripts/plot/plot_reach_tubes.jl: plot_tubes_scram_pj() with
  variant=:fat|:tight knob; plot_tubes_scram_full() for full-PKE
  3-panel (T_c, T_f, rho); plot_tubes_heatup_pj() reads results/
  not reachability/.

Journal + memory
- journal/entries/2026-04-27-shutdown-sos-and-scram-X_exit.tex (NEW):
  long-form entry on the SOS hot-standby barrier and the scram X_exit
  refactor.
- journal/journal.tex: input chain updated.
- claude_memory/ — three new session notes:
  * 2026-04-27-scram-X_exit-shutdown-margin.md
  * 2026-04-28-DICE-2026-conference-intel.md (people, sessions,
    strategic notes for the May 12 talk)
  * 2026-04-28-path1-sos-pj-sketch.md (sketch of nonlinear-SOS via
    polynomial multiply-through; saved for an overnight session)

Docs
- docs/model_cheatsheet.md (NEW): one-page reference of state vector,
  dynamics, constants, modes, predicates, sanity numbers — the talk
  prep cheatsheet Dane asked for.
- docs/figures/reach_*_tubes.png: regenerated with the new mat data.
- presentations/prelim-presentation/outline.md: revised arc per the
  April-28 review pass (cuts: Lyapunov-fails standalone slide,
  operation-tube standalone slide, SOS standalone; adds: scopes-of-
  control framing, scram on the headline result slide).
- app/predicate_explorer.jl: minor.

Hacker-Split: end-of-session scratch bundle
2026-05-02 23:02:50 -04:00

16 KiB
Raw Blame History

2026-04-28 — DICE 2026 conference intel (Salt Lake City, May 12-13)

Networking + strategy notes for the 2026 Digital Engineering Conference, hosted by INL + University of Utah + Utah Office of Energy Development at S.J. Quinney College of Law, U Utah.

Dane's slot

Tuesday May 12, 3:30 PM — Breakout Session 10 (afternoon, 2:304:30). Talk title: "Leveraging Formal Methods to Build High Assurance Hybrid Autonomous Control Systems for Nuclear Power". 4th of 6 talks in BS10. 20-minute slot.

BS10 theme is risk + assurance, not tools. Defense-in-depth framing (slide 11) lands well here.

BS10 walkthrough (Dane's session)

Time Speaker Talk What to know
2:30 Olivia Beck Metadata Standards for Nuclear Deterrence Test Data Data-layer / nonproliferation; orthogonal to Dane's work.
2:50 Robert Hayes DE of Agility and Risk in Complex SoS NCSU Associate Professor of Nuclear Engineering. Background is radiation physics, health physics, nonproliferation, dosimetry — not his published wheelhouse for SoS/digital engineering. The DICE talk represents a stretch from his usual research; either he's broadening or the topic is a cover for radiation-context work. Likely Q&A from him: "how does this scale to system-of-systems?" Have ready: per-mode reach-avoid composition; you verify locally and inherit hybrid correctness. Possible name collision — confirm by face on arrival; multiple Robert Hayes in the field.
3:10 Linyu Lin Predictive Maintenance Visualization INL researcher, ML-flavored predictive-maintenance work. Orthogonal but worth a hello — INL collaborator pool.
3:30 Dane Formal Methods talk
3:50 David Borden Cryogenic DT for Neutrino Physics Specialized; orthogonal.
4:10 Nicole Davis "Every Interface is a Risk" Cyber-flavored closer. Couldn't disambiguate online (very common name). Title strongly suggests OT-cyber posture; she'll be in the same defense-in-depth headspace as Dane's slide 11. Likely friendly Q&A; mention defense-in-depth out loud and she'll bite.

Top 3 to seek out at the Tuesday reception (4:456:30)

1. Yue Chen — NREL (likely; common name, see caveat)

Working hypothesis: Yue Chen at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Denver Metro), Ph.D. University of Florida 20122016. Coursework in optimization/optimal control, stochastic control, control of complex networks. Published on combining model-based + model-free methods for stochastic control of DERs. NREL has an active Autonomous Energy Systems thrust with Lyapunov-stability + SOS work for grid-forming converters — the talk title ("Lyapunov-Based Iterative Learning of Regions of Attraction for Autonomous Systems") fits this lineage.

Caveat: "Yue Chen" is extremely common in the field; couldn't 100% confirm this is the right Yue Chen. Verify by face/badge on arrival. LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/yuechen10/ for the NREL one.

Why seek him out: Methodological neighbor. ROA learning is the ML-flavored cousin of Dane's SOS-barrier path. Conversation opener: "I'm doing SOS polynomial barriers on a similar problem — what's the trade-off in your experience between certified-but-rigid (SOS) and learned-but-soft (iterative ROA)?" Lets him show his work, opens collab door.

If he's at the methodology end (a real stability theorist): a possible collaborator on path 1 (PJ-SOS). Worth a follow-up email after the conference.

2. Diego Mandelli — Idaho National Laboratory

Confirmed. R&D Engineer at INL, Ph.D., works in Risk Assessment and Management Services. Specializes in dynamic PRA, simulation-based risk modeling, AI/data-mining for nuclear safety, knowledge graphs for nuclear plant systems. Recent (2024) work on "Technical Language Processing of Nuclear Power Plants Equipment Reliability Data" + the MBSE-knowledge-graph approach on his DICE talk.

Why seek him out: Licensing/regulatory pathway ally. Mandelli's work is the data + reliability + reasoning layer that complements Dane's formal verification — different abstraction levels of the same high-assurance problem. He's INL, well-networked, knows the NRC interface.

Conversation opener: "Your KG approach gives a structured reasoning layer over reliability data; my work gives bounded-time safety proofs over the continuous plant. They're complementary — both feed the licensing argument from different sides. How are you seeing the NRC respond to formal-methods-based assurance arguments?"

His DICE talk: BS3 Tuesday morning at 10:25 — "From Data to Knowledge: An MBSE- and Knowledge Graph-Centered AI Framework for Nuclear Reliability and Licensing."

3. Sean McBride — Idaho State University

Confirmed. Director of the Informatics Research Institute at Idaho State University's College of Technology. Founded the ICS Cybersecurity Associates Degree program at ISU. Background: ex-FireEye (built their ICS security business strategy), pioneered DHS ICS-CERT threat/vulnerability intelligence, co-founded Critical Intelligence (ICS threat intel firm). One of the people who actually built ICS-CERT. Education-focused now; cares about workforce + students who understand both PLCs and physical safeguards.

Why seek him out: Closest direct overlap with Dane's formal-methods- plus-cyber pitch. McBride represents the OT-cyber audience Dane is trying to reach. He's also at INL's neighbor institution — geographic and network proximity to Dane's likely collaborators.

His DICE talk: BS6 Tuesday afternoon at 2:30 — "A Hierarchical Model for PLC Code Quality, Safety and Cybersecurity." Conflicts with Dane's slot (BS10), so reception is the moment.

Conversation opener: "Your PLC code quality work and my hybrid controller verification work both hit the same target — high-assurance control logic — from different layers. I'd love to compare notes on how the OT-cyber community is receiving formal-methods arguments."

Tuesday morning breakout — strategic room choice

All five rooms (BS1BS5) run in parallel 9:4511:45. Pick one and stay. Two viable plays:

Option A — BS1 (methodology overlap):

  • 10:05 — Yue Chen, "Lyapunov-Based Iterative Learning of ROA for Autonomous Systems"
  • 10:45 — Kevin O'Rear (Everstar/Gordian), "DOE→NRC Regulatory Crosswalk via GenAI"
  • 11:05 — Sonali Roy, "AutoDONE: Agentic Framework for NPP Design"

Option B — BS3 (licensing pathway):

  • 9:45 — Jieun Lee, "Remote Ops AGN-201 Reactor DT"
  • 10:25 — Diego Mandelli, "MBSE + KG AI for Nuclear Reliability and Licensing"
  • 11:05 — Nicholas Luciano (ORNL), "Digital Twins to Enable Licensing of Nuclear Innovations"

Recommendation: Option A. Yue Chen is the single most valuable methodology contact. The licensing-pathway people (Mandelli, Luciano) will be at the reception and are findable socially.

Keynote priorities (12 keynotes; only these 4 matter for Dane)

Liz Muller — CEO/Co-founder, Deep Fission

Tuesday 8:45 morning keynote. Co-founded Deep Fission in 2023 with her father Richard Muller (UC Berkeley physicist). Deep Fission deploys off-the-shelf small modular pressurized water reactors a mile underground in boreholes — combining standard PWR tech, deep-borehole drilling (oil & gas), and geothermal heat transfer. Reactor named "Gravity." Selected for DOE's Reactor Pilot Program; first reactor going in at Parsons, Kansas. Recently raised $80M.

Previously co-founded and led Deep Isolation (nuclear waste disposal via deep boreholes — same tech family) and Berkeley Earth (climate-data nonprofit).

Why she matters for Dane: PWRs in unconventional siting → unconventional licensing arguments → formal methods becomes more relevant, not less, when the regulator can't lean on operational track record. Listen for how she frames the regulatory ask. If she emphasizes "we use standard PWR tech to minimize licensing risk," that's the opening for formal-methods assurance arguments.

Yasir Arafat — CTO/Co-founder, Aalo Atomics

Wednesday 9:15 opening keynote. Founded Westinghouse's eVinci microreactor program. Led DOE's MARVEL project at INL — first DOE reactor authorization in 30 months (very fast). Joined Aalo Atomics from INL. Aalo is Austin-based, building the Aalo-1: a 10 MWe sodium-cooled microreactor inspired by MARVEL, optimized for factory mass-manufacture. Partnered with data-center operators. Raised $100M (TechCrunch, Aug 2025).

Why he matters for Dane: Formerly at INL (Dane's NRC fellowship network), did MARVEL (the real "MARVEL → industry" pipeline). Sodium- cooled fast reactor licensing is different from PWR licensing but equally hard — autonomous control + formal verification is more, not less, valuable. Arafat is the kind of technical founder who'd get formal methods immediately.

Emy Lesofski — Director, Utah Office of Energy Development

Appointed by Gov. Spencer Cox as energy advisor and OED Director in late 2023/2024. Previously: U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations (Subcommittee on the Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies) — deep federal appropriations background. Oversees policy, programs, and the Utah San Rafael Energy Lab. UOED has signed an MOU with TerraPower exploring siting of an advanced reactor in Utah.

Why she matters for Dane: State-level energy authority + federal appropriations background = exactly the right node if Dane wants to explore state-funded research, advanced-reactor siting work, or the San Rafael Energy Lab's research portfolio. UOED is Diamond sponsor of DICE — she'll be visible and accessible.

Bryan Lopez — Senior Director, Microsoft Health & Scientific Missions

Federal Strategic Science / Scientific Missions Senior Director, Health at Microsoft (Redmond). Previously: DOE Strategic Account Director at Microsoft. Earlier: Sandia National Labs, Nuvotech, Air Force Research Laboratory. UNM undergrad, U Arizona M.S. (Management Information Systems). He's been the Microsoft↔DOE bridge for years.

Why he matters for Dane: Microsoft is heavy at this conference (3 keynote slots — Lopez, Misty Jordan, Nelli Babayan). They have discretionary research-engagement budget for federal scientific computing. Dane's NRC fellowship + formal methods work is exactly the profile Microsoft Federal looks at. Lopez is the contact.

Other potentially-useful people across the program

  • Nicholas Luciano (ORNL, BS3 11:05) — R&D in Advanced Engineering Technologies, Nuclear Nonproliferation Division. PhD in nuclear engineering from U Tennessee. Did neutron spectra at SNS, fast-reactor Pu disposition, VVER analysis. Now: digital twins for nuclear licensing — adjacent to Dane.
  • Max Taylor (BS2 11:05) — "MBSE to Intrusion Detection Systems." Same defense-in-depth philosophy as Dane.
  • Prashant Kondle (BS8 3:50) — "Clearing the Path for AI-Assisted Systems in Regulated Industries." XAI for regulatory acceptance — adjacent to formal methods as a regulatory pathway.

Hard-question prep (what Dane should expect)

Person / archetype Likely question Prepped answer
Yue Chen (or any Lyapunov-ROA person) "Why SOS over learned ROA? Soundness for adaptivity is a real trade." Yes, the trade-off is real. Soundness is non-negotiable for NRC. We lose flexibility in exchange for proofs that compose across modes. Complementary, not competitive.
Robert Hayes (or any SoS person) "How does this scale to system-of-systems?" Per-mode composition. Verify each mode locally; hybrid correctness inherited by composition. Doesn't require monolithic verification.
Diego Mandelli / SysML-MBSE crowd "Why FRET over SysML/MBSE?" FRET produces machine-checkable LTL; SysML produces human-readable diagrams. Different roles — FRET is downstream of SysML, not a replacement.
Generative-AI / agentic crowd (Vaibhav Yadav, Sonali Roy) "Why not have an LLM do this?" ML in the safety-critical loop is exactly what we're avoiding. Formal methods give the bounds ML lacks. We're complementary to ML safety analysis, not competitive. Don't be defensive — the assurance argument is solid.
OT-cyber audience (Sean McBride, Nicole Davis) "What's your threat model?" Slide 11 close: formal methods constrain physical-plant behavior even given comms-layer compromise. An assurance axis comms-security alone can't reach.
Liz Muller / Yasir Arafat archetype "How does this help our licensing case?" Bounded-time safety proofs over the continuous plant give you a quantitative argument for the NRC, not a qualitative one. Verified discrete controller + sound nonlinear reach = "we have proven this can't do the bad thing in this regime."

Strategic positioning notes

  • Dane is a methodological outlier. This conference is heavy on AI/ML/digital-twin/agentic. His formal-methods pitch will stand out — opportunity (memorable) and risk (audience may not be tooled to evaluate it). Don't apologize. Lean into the assurance angle; the cyber-leaning subset (BS6, BS7, BS10 second half) gets it instantly.
  • The regulatory-pathway crowd is the natural ally. Mandelli, Luciano, O'Rear, Kondle. All asking variants of "how do we get advanced nuclear past the NRC?" Dane has a piece of that puzzle. Find them at the reception.
  • The Microsoft-Federal triad (Jordan, Babayan, Lopez) probably has discretionary budget for formal-methods-adjacent federal work. Worth a hello at minimum.
  • Reception is the highest-leverage window (Tuesday 4:456:30, catered). Wednesday is mostly fireside chats and remarks — less chance to corner the people Dane wants to meet.

Things to verify on arrival

  • Yue Chen identity — confirm this is the NREL one (not a different Yue Chen from a different institution). Look at his badge/intro.
  • Robert Hayes — confirm whether this is the NCSU radiation-physics professor (research mismatch with talk topic) or a different Robert Hayes. The DICE talk seems out of his published wheelhouse.
  • Nicole Davis — couldn't find online; she's almost certainly identifiable from her abstract / intro at the start of her talk in BS10. Decide on the spot whether to ping her after.

Dane's preferred breakout-session strategy (TL;DR)

  1. Tuesday morning 9:4511:45 → BS1 (Yue Chen).
  2. Tuesday afternoon 2:304:30 → BS10 (his own session).
  3. Tuesday reception 4:456:30 → find Mandelli + McBride + (Luciano if spotted), in that order.
  4. Wednesday morning → keynotes (Arafat); fireside chat is networking-only, doesn't really need close attention.
  5. Anytime he sees Lesofski (Diamond sponsor — she'll be visible) or Lopez — say hi, hand business card.

Sources