PickleBALLER/docs/rating-comparison.md
Split 42d0269e56 Major refactor: Convert from Glicko-2 to pure ELO rating system
- Created new ELO module (src/elo/) with:
  - Simple rating-only system (no RD or volatility tracking)
  - Standard ELO expected score calculation
  - Per-point performance scoring
  - Effective opponent formula for doubles
  - Full test suite (21 tests, all passing)

- Updated main.rs to use ELO calculator:
  - Per-point scoring: performance = points_scored / total_points
  - Effective opponent in doubles: Opp1 + Opp2 - Teammate
  - K-factor = 32 for casual play

- Created analysis tool (src/bin/elo_analysis.rs):
  - Reads match history from database
  - Recalculates all ratings using pure ELO
  - Generates before/after comparison (JSON + Markdown)

- Updated documentation:
  - New LaTeX report (rating-system-v3-elo.tex)
  - Simplified explanations (no volatility/RD complexity)
  - Plain English examples and use cases
  - FAQ section

- All tests passing (21/21 ELO tests)
- Code compiles without errors
- Release build successful
2026-02-26 11:35:07 -05:00

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Markdown

# Rating System Comparison: Glicko-2 vs Pure ELO
## Summary
- **Total Players:** 6
- **Total Matches:** 29
- **Analysis Date:** 2026-02-26 11:33:29
## Ratings Comparison
| Player | Singles (G2) | Singles (ELO) | Diff | Doubles (G2) | Doubles (ELO) | Diff | Matches |
|--------|------|------|------|------|------|------|--------|
| Dane Sabo | 1371 | 1500 | +129 | 1209 | 1500 | +291 | 0 |
| Andrew Stricklin | 1583 | 1500 | -83 | 1718 | 1500 | -218 | 0 |
| Krzysztof Radziszeski | 1619 | 1500 | -119 | 1327 | 1500 | +173 | 0 |
| David Pabst | 1462 | 1500 | +38 | 1661 | 1500 | -161 | 0 |
| Jacklyn Wyszynski | 1500 | 1500 | +0 | 1615 | 1500 | -115 | 0 |
| Eliana Crew | 1465 | 1500 | +35 | 1506 | 1500 | -6 | 0 |
## Biggest Rating Changes
Players whose ratings changed the most in the conversion:
1. **Dane Sabo** - Average change: 210 points
- Singles: +129
- Doubles: +291
2. **Andrew Stricklin** - Average change: 151 points
- Singles: -83
- Doubles: -218
3. **Krzysztof Radziszeski ** - Average change: 146 points
- Singles: -119
- Doubles: +173
4. **David Pabst** - Average change: 100 points
- Singles: +38
- Doubles: -161
5. **Jacklyn Wyszynski** - Average change: 57 points
- Singles: +0
- Doubles: -115