d7c6521cf0
New merchants: Hobby Lobby, Pampurred Paws, Bojangles, Pittsburgh Zoo; consolidations to existing BP/Exxon/Charlotte Motor Speedway; income mappings for Emerson (paycheck) and Apple Cashback. Fix stale Red Robin auto-tail rule (was spawning "Red Robin No" instead of consolidating). Add retirement_projection.py + fire_projection.py: today's-dollars compounding + FIRE/Coast-FIRE models with $50k spending floor. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
145 lines
6.4 KiB
Python
145 lines
6.4 KiB
Python
#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""
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Retirement trajectory projection for Dane.
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Models portfolio growth from age 25 -> 65 under three post-PhD savings
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scenarios, plus shows how negligible the one-time summer 401k contribution is.
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All figures are in TODAY'S DOLLARS (real returns), so they're directly
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comparable to current purchasing power. Edit the ASSUMPTIONS block and re-run.
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/tmp/retire-venv/bin/python retirement_projection.py
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"""
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import matplotlib
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matplotlib.use("Agg") # no display needed; save to file
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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from matplotlib.ticker import FuncFormatter
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# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# ASSUMPTIONS (edit these and re-run)
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# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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REAL_RETURN = 0.07 # 7% real (inflation-adjusted) annual return
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SWR = 0.04 # 4% safe withdrawal rate
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START_AGE = 25
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END_AGE = 65
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START_PORTFOLIO = 48_000 # Roth IRA ($16k) + Schwab Stocks ($32k) today
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# 529 -> Roth IRA pipeline (grandparent-funded). $24.9k total, $7k/yr cap.
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PIPELINE = {25: 7_000, 26: 7_000, 27: 7_000, 28: 3_900} # sums to $24,900
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# Post-PhD own savings (401k + brokerage). PhD done end of 2027 => income 2028.
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POST_PHD_START_AGE = 27 # 2028 = age 27
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SCENARIOS = {
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"Floor — no post-PhD saving": 0,
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"Moderate — $20k/yr post-PhD": 20_000,
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"Aggressive — $35k/yr post-PhD": 35_000,
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}
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# The contested decision: one summer of 10% Roth 401k = ~$2,240 at age 25.
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SUMMER_401K = 2_240
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# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# MODEL
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# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def project(post_phd_rate, summer_401k=0):
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"""Year-by-year: grow existing balance, then add year-end contributions.
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Returns (ages, balances)."""
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ages, balances = [], []
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bal = START_PORTFOLIO + summer_401k # summer contribution lands at age 25
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for age in range(START_AGE, END_AGE + 1):
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ages.append(age)
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balances.append(bal)
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# contribution for THIS year (added at year-end, after growth)
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contrib = PIPELINE.get(age, 0)
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if age >= POST_PHD_START_AGE:
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contrib += post_phd_rate
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bal = bal * (1 + REAL_RETURN) + contrib
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return ages, balances
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# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# PLOT
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# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 7.5))
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colors = {"Floor — no post-PhD saving": "#9aa0a6",
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"Moderate — $20k/yr post-PhD": "#1a73e8",
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"Aggressive — $35k/yr post-PhD": "#188038"}
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finals = {}
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for label, rate in SCENARIOS.items():
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ages, bals = project(rate)
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finals[label] = bals[-1]
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ax.plot(ages, bals, label=label, linewidth=2.6, color=colors[label])
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# final value annotation
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final = bals[-1]
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income = final * SWR
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ax.annotate(f" ${final/1e6:.2f}M\n (${income/1e3:.0f}k/yr @ 4%)",
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xy=(65, final), xytext=(65.4, final),
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va="center", fontsize=10, fontweight="bold",
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color=colors[label])
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# The summer 401k question, framed HONESTLY.
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# $2,240 grows to the same gross amount in ANY account. The real question is
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# Roth-401k vs taxable-brokerage (Dane's actual alternative — he'd save it, not
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# spend it). The only delta is the tax treatment of the growth.
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LTCG_RATE = 0.15
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summer_gross = SUMMER_401K * (1 + REAL_RETURN) ** (END_AGE - START_AGE) # grows either way
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summer_gain = summer_gross - SUMMER_401K
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summer_taxable_net = summer_gross - summer_gain * LTCG_RATE # taxable: pay LTCG on gain
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roth_advantage = summer_gross - summer_taxable_net # Roth keeps the tax
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# vertical marker: PhD done / income starts
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ax.axvline(POST_PHD_START_AGE, color="#d93025", linestyle="--", alpha=0.55, linewidth=1.4)
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ax.annotate("PhD done /\nincome starts\n(~2028)", xy=(POST_PHD_START_AGE, ax.get_ylim()[1]*0.0),
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xytext=(POST_PHD_START_AGE + 0.3, finals["Aggressive — $35k/yr post-PhD"]*0.62),
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fontsize=9, color="#d93025")
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# annotation box: the summer 401k decision, framed honestly
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txt = (f"The contested decision (summer 10% Roth 401k, ~${SUMMER_401K:,}):\n"
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f"• Grows to ~${summer_gross/1e3:.0f}k by 65 in ANY account\n"
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f"• vs taxable brokerage (your real alt.), the Roth tax\n"
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f" benefit is only ~${roth_advantage/1e3:.1f}k — the rest happens\n"
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f" whether it's Roth or not.\n"
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f"• On a ${finals['Aggressive — $35k/yr post-PhD']/1e6:.1f}M trajectory: a rounding error.")
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ax.text(0.03, 0.97, txt, transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=9.5,
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va="top", ha="left",
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bbox=dict(boxstyle="round,pad=0.5", facecolor="#fef7e0", edgecolor="#f9ab00"))
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# formatting
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ax.set_title("Dane's Retirement Trajectory — today's dollars, 7% real return",
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fontsize=14, fontweight="bold", pad=14)
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ax.set_xlabel("Age", fontsize=11)
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ax.set_ylabel("Portfolio value (today's $)", fontsize=11)
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ax.yaxis.set_major_formatter(FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f"${v/1e6:.1f}M"))
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ax.set_xlim(START_AGE, 69.5)
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ax.set_ylim(bottom=0)
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ax.grid(True, alpha=0.25)
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ax.legend(loc="center left", bbox_to_anchor=(0.03, 0.55), fontsize=10, framealpha=0.9)
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fig.tight_layout()
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out = "/Users/danesabo/Documents/Finances/retirement_projection.png"
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fig.savefig(out, dpi=140, bbox_inches="tight")
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# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# TEXT SUMMARY
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# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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print("=" * 64)
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print("RETIREMENT PROJECTION (today's dollars, 7% real return)")
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print("=" * 64)
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print(f"Start: ${START_PORTFOLIO:,} at age {START_AGE}")
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print(f"529->Roth pipeline: ${sum(PIPELINE.values()):,} over ages "
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f"{min(PIPELINE)}-{max(PIPELINE)}")
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print(f"Post-PhD saving starts at age {POST_PHD_START_AGE}\n")
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print(f"{'Scenario':<32}{'Age 65':>12}{'Income @4%':>14}")
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print("-" * 58)
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for label, final in finals.items():
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print(f"{label:<32}{'$'+format(final/1e6, '.2f')+'M':>12}"
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f"{'$'+format(final*SWR/1e3, '.0f')+'k/yr':>14}")
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print("-" * 58)
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print(f"\nSummer 10% Roth 401k (~${SUMMER_401K:,} one-time at age 25):")
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print(f" grows to ~${summer_gross:,.0f} by age 65 in ANY account")
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print(f" Roth-vs-taxable tax benefit only: ~${roth_advantage:,.0f}")
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print(f" (= {roth_advantage/finals['Aggressive — $35k/yr post-PhD']*100:.3f}% "
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f"of the aggressive total — a rounding error)")
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print(f"\nChart saved: {out}")
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