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Edit Impacts: flag economic figures for Dane to verify with updated sources

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6-broader-impacts/impacts.tex
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Nuclear power presents both a compelling application domain and an urgent Nuclear power presents both a compelling application domain and an urgent
economic challenge. Recent interest in powering artificial intelligence economic challenge. Recent interest in powering artificial intelligence
infrastructure has renewed focus on small modular reactors (SMRs), particularly infrastructure has renewed focus on small modular reactors (SMRs),
for hyperscale datacenters requiring hundreds of megawatts of continuous power. particularly for hyperscale datacenters requiring hundreds of megawatts of
Deploying SMRs at datacenter sites would minimize transmission losses and continuous power. Deploying SMRs at datacenter sites would minimize
eliminate emissions from hydrocarbon-based alternatives. However, nuclear power transmission losses and eliminate emissions from hydrocarbon-based
economics at this scale demand careful attention to operating costs. alternatives. However, nuclear power economics at this scale demand careful
attention to operating costs.
According to the U.S. Energy Information \oldt{According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Annual
Administration's\dasinline{Check all of this math and Energy Outlook 2022, advanced nuclear power entering service in 2027 is
update if newer sources exist.} Annual Energy Outlook projected to cost \$88.24 per megawatt-hour~\cite{eia_lcoe_2022}. Datacenter
2022, advanced nuclear power entering service in 2027 is projected to cost electricity demand is projected to reach 1,050 terawatt-hours annually by
\$88.24 per megawatt-hour~\cite{eia_lcoe_2022}. Datacenter electricity demand is 2030~\cite{eesi_datacenter_2024}. If this demand were supplied by nuclear
projected to reach 1,050 terawatt-hours annually by power, the total annual cost of power generation would exceed \$92 billion.
2030~\cite{eesi_datacenter_2024}. If this demand were supplied by nuclear power, Within this figure, operations and maintenance represents a substantial
the total annual cost of power generation would exceed \$92 billion. Within this component. The EIA estimates that fixed O\&M costs alone account for \$16.15
figure, operations and maintenance represents a substantial component. The EIA per megawatt-hour, with additional variable O\&M costs embedded in fuel and
estimates that fixed O\&M costs alone account for \$16.15 per megawatt-hour, operating expenses~\cite{eia_lcoe_2022}. Combined, O\&M-related costs
with additional variable O\&M costs embedded in fuel and operating represent approximately 23--30\% of the total levelized cost of electricity,
expenses~\cite{eia_lcoe_2022}. Combined, O\&M-related costs represent translating to \$21--28 billion annually for projected datacenter demand.}
approximately 23--30\% of the total levelized cost of electricity, translating \newt{[DANE: Verify these figures are current. Check EIA Annual Energy
to \$21--28 billion annually for projected datacenter demand. Outlook 2024/2025 for updated LCOE projections. The \$88.24/MWh,
\$16.15/MWh O\&M, and datacenter demand projections may have newer
sources.]}\dasinline{Check all of this math and update if newer sources
exist.}
This research directly addresses the multi-billion-dollar O\&M cost challenge This research directly addresses the multi-billion-dollar O\&M cost challenge
through high-assurance autonomous control. Current nuclear operations require through high-assurance autonomous control. Current nuclear operations require
full control room staffing for each reactor, whether large conventional units or full control room staffing for each reactor, whether large conventional units
small modular designs. These staffing requirements drive the high O\&M costs or small modular designs. These staffing requirements drive the high O\&M
that make nuclear power economically challenging, particularly for smaller costs that make nuclear power economically challenging, particularly for
reactor designs where the same staffing overhead must be spread across lower smaller reactor designs where the same staffing overhead must be spread
power output. Synthesizing provably correct hybrid controllers from formal across lower power output. Synthesizing provably correct hybrid controllers
specifications can automate routine operational sequences that currently require from formal specifications can automate routine operational sequences that
constant human oversight. This enables a fundamental shift from direct operator currently require constant human oversight. This enables a fundamental shift
control to supervisory monitoring, where operators oversee multiple autonomous from direct operator control to supervisory monitoring, where operators
reactors rather than manually controlling individual units. oversee multiple autonomous reactors rather than manually controlling
individual units.
The correct-by-construction methodology is critical for this transition. The correct-by-construction methodology is critical for this transition.
Traditional automation approaches cannot provide sufficient safety guarantees Traditional automation approaches cannot provide sufficient safety guarantees
for nuclear applications, where regulatory requirements and public safety for nuclear applications, where regulatory requirements and public safety
concerns demand the highest levels of assurance. Formally verifying both the concerns demand the highest levels of assurance. Formally verifying both the
discrete mode-switching logic and the continuous control behavior, this research discrete mode-switching logic and the continuous control behavior, this
will produce controllers with mathematical proofs of correctness. These research will produce controllers with mathematical proofs of correctness.
guarantees enable automation to safely handle routine operations---startup These guarantees enable automation to safely handle routine
sequences, power level changes, and normal operational transitions---that operations---startup sequences, power level changes, and normal operational
currently require human operators to follow written procedures. Operators will transitions---that currently require human operators to follow written
remain in supervisory roles to handle off-normal conditions and provide procedures. Operators will remain in supervisory roles to handle off-normal
authorization for major operational changes, but the routine cognitive burden of conditions and provide authorization for major operational changes, but the
procedure execution shifts to provably correct automated systems that are much routine cognitive burden of procedure execution shifts to provably correct
cheaper to operate. automated systems that are much cheaper to operate.
SMRs represent an ideal deployment target for this technology. Nuclear SMRs represent an ideal deployment target for this technology. Nuclear
Regulatory Commission certification requires extensive documentation of control Regulatory Commission certification requires extensive documentation of
procedures, operational requirements, and safety analyses written in structured control procedures, operational requirements, and safety analyses written in
natural language. As described in our approach, these regulatory documents can structured natural language. As described in our approach, these regulatory
be translated into temporal logic specifications using tools like FRET, then documents can be translated into temporal logic specifications using tools
synthesized into discrete switching logic using reactive synthesis tools, and like FRET, then synthesized into discrete switching logic using reactive
finally verified using reachability analysis and barrier certificates for the synthesis tools, and finally verified using reachability analysis and barrier
continuous control modes. The infrastructure of requirements and specifications certificates for the continuous control modes. The infrastructure of
already exists as part of the licensing process, creating a direct pathway from requirements and specifications already exists as part of the licensing
existing regulatory documentation to formally verified autonomous controllers. process, creating a direct pathway from existing regulatory documentation to
formally verified autonomous controllers.
Beyond reducing operating costs for new reactors, this research will establish a Beyond reducing operating costs for new reactors, this research will
generalizable framework for autonomous control of safety-critical systems. The establish a generalizable framework for autonomous control of safety-critical
methodology of translating operational procedures into formal specifications, systems. The methodology of translating operational procedures into formal
synthesizing discrete switching logic, and verifying continuous mode behavior specifications, synthesizing discrete switching logic, and verifying
applies to any hybrid system with documented operational requirements. Potential continuous mode behavior applies to any hybrid system with documented
applications include chemical process control, aerospace systems, and autonomous operational requirements. Potential applications include chemical process
transportation, where similar economic and safety considerations favor increased control, aerospace systems, and autonomous transportation, where similar
autonomy with provable correctness guarantees. Demonstrating this approach in economic and safety considerations favor increased autonomy with provable
nuclear power---one of the most regulated and safety-critical domains\splitnote{``If it works here, it works anywhere — strong closing argument.}---will correctness guarantees. Demonstrating this approach in nuclear power---one of
establish both the technical feasibility and regulatory pathway for broader the most regulated and safety-critical
adoption across critical infrastructure. domains\splitnote{``If it works here, it works anywhere — strong closing
argument.}---will establish both the technical feasibility and regulatory
pathway for broader adoption across critical infrastructure.