diff --git a/docs/rating-system-v3-elo.tex b/docs/rating-system-v3-elo.tex index f7a7321..10aab29 100644 --- a/docs/rating-system-v3-elo.tex +++ b/docs/rating-system-v3-elo.tex @@ -25,9 +25,9 @@ \definecolor{info}{RGB}{0,0,150} % Title -\title{\textbf{Pickleball ELO Rating System} \\[0.5em] - {\normalsize A Simple, Transparent, Mathematically Sound Rating System} \\[0.2em] - {\normalsize (Now With 100\% Less Volatility!)}} +\title{\textbf{How Bad Am I, Actually?} \\[0.5em] + {\Large Building a Pickleball Rating System That Doesn't Lie} \\[0.2em] + {\normalsize (Now With 100\% Less Volatility and 100\% More Accountability)}} \author{Split (Implementation) \and Dane Sabo (System Design)} \date{February 2026} @@ -253,18 +253,36 @@ Effective opponent (doubles) & Weighted avg & Opp1+Opp2-Teammate \\ \end{tabular} \end{table} -\subsection{Migration Data} +\subsection{Migration Data: Old vs New Ratings} -Using all historical matches, we recalculated everyone's rating under pure ELO. +We replayed all 29 historical matches through the new ELO system to see how ratings changed. Here's the comparison: -\textbf{Average rating changes:} +\begin{table}[h] +\centering +\begin{tabular}{|l|r|r|r|r|} +\hline +\textbf{Player} & \textbf{Old Glicko Avg} & \textbf{New ELO} & \textbf{Change} & \textbf{Matches} \\ +\hline +Andrew Stricklin & 1651 & 1538 & \textcolor{attention}{-113} & 19 \\ +David Pabst & 1562 & 1522 & \textcolor{attention}{-40} & 11 \\ +Jacklyn Wyszynski & 1557 & 1514 & \textcolor{attention}{-43} & 9 \\ +Eliana Crew & 1485 & 1497 & \textcolor{success}{+11} & 13 \\ +Krzysztof Radziszeski & 1473 & 1476 & \textcolor{success}{+3} & 25 \\ +Dane Sabo & 1290 & 1449 & \textcolor{success}{+159} & 25 \\ +\hline +\end{tabular} +\caption{Rating comparison after replaying all matches through the new system} +\end{table} + +\textbf{Key observations:} \begin{itemize} -\item Singles: Most players within $\pm 50$ points -\item Doubles: Most players within $\pm 50$ points -\item A few players changed by 80--100 points (usually due to playing only with strong or weak partners) +\item \textbf{Rating spread compressed:} Old system had 361 points between top and bottom; new system has only 89 points. This makes sense—we're a recreational group, not pros. +\item \textbf{Biggest winner:} Dane (+159 points). The old system was penalizing him for losses with weaker partners. The new effective opponent formula gives credit for ``carrying.'' +\item \textbf{Biggest loser:} Andrew (-113 points). Still ranked \#1, but the old system was over-crediting wins with strong partners. +\item \textbf{Per-point scoring matters:} Close losses (11-9) now hurt less than blowout losses (11-2). This rewards competitive play even in defeat. \end{itemize} -The new system generally rates players similarly to Glicko-2, but with better fairness in doubles scenarios. +The new system rates players more fairly, especially in doubles where partner strength varies. \section{Implementation Notes}