Obsidian/Presentations/20251215-Emerson-Pres/sections/03_safety_imperative.tex

% Safety Imperative
\begin{frame}{Human operators are the root cause of 70--80\% of nuclear incidents}

  \begin{center}
    \begin{tikzpicture}
      \draw[thick, fill=gray!20] (0,0) rectangle (12,7);
      \node[align=center, text width=10cm] at (6,3.5) {
        \textbf{FIGURE: Human Error Statistics}\\[0.3cm]
        Top: Pie chart showing 70--80\% human error\\
        vs 20\% equipment failure\\[0.3cm]
        Middle: TMI timeline visualization\\
        100+ alarms $\rightarrow$ operator confusion $\rightarrow$ 44\% meltdown\\[0.3cm]
        Bottom: Human Error Probability chart\\
        HEP: 0.001 (optimal) $\rightarrow$ 1.0 (accident conditions)\\
        Stress factors multiply error rates 10-50x
      };
    \end{tikzpicture}
  \end{center}

  %SPEAKER NOTES: See comments below
%
    \textbf{The Human Error Problem:}
    \begin{itemize}
      \item 70--80\% of events attributed to human error (multiple independent analyses)
      \item IAEA: ``Human error was the root cause of ALL severe accidents'' (TMI, Chernobyl, Fukushima)
    \end{itemize}

    \textbf{Three Mile Island (1979):}
    \begin{itemize}
      \item 100+ simultaneous alarms overwhelmed operators
      \item Operators shut down emergency cooling based on incorrect assessment
      \item Result: 44\% of fuel melted
      \item Risk assessment was off by 500-fold (5\% actual vs 0.01\% predicted)
    \end{itemize}

    \textbf{Fundamental Cognitive Limitations:}
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Working memory: 7±2 items (Miller, 1956)
      \item HEP: 0.001--0.01 optimal $\rightarrow$ 0.1--1.0 under accident conditions
      \item Four decades of training improvements haven't changed the 70--80\% ratio
    \end{itemize}
% (End of speaker notes)
\end{frame}