vault backup: 2025-07-16 11:33:04

Class Work/NUCE 2122/NUCE_2122_HW3.md

@@ -28,35 +28,7 @@ Evaluate your target locations by:
 
 # Submission
 ## Vermont Yankee Restarting
-- Vermont Yankee is one of the most recent nuclear reactors to be
-  decomissioned, and notably, was because of economic factors. 
-  This makes Vermont Yankee an ideal candidate to restart.
-- NIMBYs in the area HATE Vermont Yankee. The state senate tried
-  to block its license extension, but the NRC approved it anyway. The
-  utility sued the state to stay open and won.
-- New England is expecting a 10% power demand increase https://commonwealthbeacon.org/energy/grid-operator-forecasting-11-increase-in-electricity-consumption-by-2034/
-- They're counting on two wind farms being built to fill this demand. 
-- These wind farms might get killed by new admin.
-- There is also a massive resevoir and hydrolectric system that was built to 
-  balance load from specifically this reactor. Right now it's being used with 
-  fossil fuel plants, but is a massive piece of infrastructure that will be less
-  efficient without the NPP
-
-## ARC: First Commercial Fusion Power Plant
-- Commonwealth Fusion Systems is planing to build a 400 MWe tokamak 
-  reactor in the area
-- It turns out, fusion technology can be approved at the state level instead
-  of the federal level. Because of this, the regulatory process is completely
-  different, and Virginia is super on board.
-- The area is desperately going to need additional power, with power 
-  consumption from data centers expected to rise from 10GW to 30GW by 2040 
-  https://virginiamercury.com/2024/12/18/virginia-to-host-worlds-first-fusion-power-plant/
-- Virginia is the dominant place for data centers in the US, with more than 1
-  in 7 data centers being in Virginia. 
-- The basics out there say this will happen in the early 2030s. Realistically this
-  is very optimistic, because the precursor project, SPARC, has yet to achieve
-  Q>1. That being said, things are looking hopeful that SPARC might produce 
-  this benchmark in 2026. 
-- The impact of commerically viable fusion power cannot be understated, especially with the regulatory framework that will be regulated *at the state level*. Reduced pollution too is also a huge plus.
-
+Over the next five years, one of the most likely nuclear restarts will take place at Vermont Yankee in Vernon, Vermont. Originally closed in 2014 due to unfavorable market conditions and low wholesale power prices, Vermont Yankee benefited from a large hydro‑reservoir system built to balance its output. With the reactor offline, that infrastructure now runs primarily on fossil‑fuel peakers—an inherently less efficient use of the reservoir’s storage capacity. New England’s regional grid operator forecasts roughly a 10 percent increase in electricity demand by 2034, driven largely by electrification of heating and transportation. Although two new offshore wind farms are slated to fill much of that gap, both projects face political headwinds and possible delays under shifting federal administrations. At the same time, Vermont has limited options for additional purchased power imports; long‑term agreements with Hydro‑Québec already run near capacity. The pending retirement or downscaling of several gas‑fired plants—once part of the Vermont utility’s reserve margin strategy—further tightens the regional fuel balance. Reviving Vermont Yankee would not only leverage existing transmission and reservoir assets but also hedge against potential shortfalls in renewables and gas supply, making a compelling case for relicensing and restart before 2030.
 
+## ARC Tokamak Reactor 
+A second high‑probability event involves the signing of a construction contract for the world’s first commercial fusion power plant in Virginia. Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) has proposed the ARC tokamak, a 400 MWe demonstration reactor, on land already zoned for energy innovation near Richmond. Unlike fission projects that require protracted federal reviews, ARC benefits from Virginia’s newly crafted state‑level regulatory framework for fusion, accelerating approval timelines. This site sits at the heart of a data‑center boom that is projected to triple power demand—from about 10 GW today to 30 GW by 2040—far outpacing available generation. While the PJM Interconnection can import limited grid support from neighboring states, those markets are also experiencing tight capacity margins as coal plants retire and solar‑project rollouts have been partially curtailed due to interconnection backlogs. A state‑approved fusion contract, signed by 2026, would position Virginia not only to meet its own load‑growth trajectory but also to export clean baseload into the PJM pool. The ARC reactor is highly dependent on the success of its precursor test reactor, SPARC, which is slated to begin operating in 2026. Even if ARC’s timeline slips into the early 2030s, the combination of soaring data‑center demand, constrained renewable pipeline, and a supportive regulatory regime makes Virginia the prime candidate for a groundbreaking fusion construction start within the next five years.